It is a rather natural conclusion: As the tech sector's GDP share of economic activity approaches a "soft limit" (the only known hard limit is 100%), the growth in the tech sector will start to slow to a level comparable to general levels of growth. Technology of course induces growth in other sectors but not as much growth as technology has been able to create for itself, so the final result is a long term irreversible slowdown in the tech sector. This seems to have been a dominant meme of 2003.
Carly Fiorina commented on that at the beginning of this interview (streaming video) and in other media. Before they closed down The Red Herring carried this piece on Moore's law and how the economics of the law may start to slow down the technological promise of the law.
[UPDATE] It seems there may even be visible technical barriers to Moore's Law.Posted by Claus at December 06, 2003 01:38 PM | TrackBack (0)